GT: Di Balik Harapan Terdapat Unsur Ketidakpastian

Posted by Gamada 08 on Jun 9, 2011 in Catatan Mahasiswa |

Ada kecenderungan seseorang memilih untuk mendapat hadiah dengan nominal moneter sedikit, tanpa diikuti dengan pembayaran bermacam-macam daripada mendapat hadiah dengan nilai moneter besar, tetapi pada saat penerimaan hadiah si penerima diminta untuk membayar berbagai biaya misal biaya administrasi, biaya pengiriman, PPN, dll. Hal ini dibuktkan dengan eksperimen kecil yang dilakukan di dalam kelas game teori yang dilakukan pada pertemuan minggu lalu yang membahas tentang konsep Loss & Forgone Gain. Rule of game dari permainan ini cukup sederhana. Ada dua pasangan pilihan pekerjaan dengan karaktersitik risiko dan keuntungan yang berbeda. Seseorang diminta untuk mengemukakan preferensinya antara pilihan pekerjaan  A atau B. Jika seseorang memilih pekerjaan A ada kesempatan bagi seseorang untuk mendapat keuntungan atau menderita kerugian, masing-masing sebesar 50%. Jika seseorang memilih pekerjaan B dia pasti mendapat keuntungan sebesar nilai moneter Rp25.000,00. Permainan yang kedua pilihannya diganti C dengan D. Jika seseorang memilih C ada ancaman untuk menderita rugi minimal atau rugi maksimal, jika rugi minimal besarnya rugi adalah sebesar RpO sedangkan jika rugi maksimal besarnya rugi adalah Rp50.000,00 probabilitinya fifty-fifty  dan jika seseorang memilih D maka besarnya kerugian yang diderita orang tersebut dapat dipastikan sebesar Rp25.000,00 .

Sebenarnya, jika dihitung secara matematis seseorang yang memilih pekerjaan dengan hasil yang tidak pasti (probabilitas untung atau rugi sama-sama 50%) dengan memilih pekerjaan yang sama sekali tidak ada risikonya, tetapi memberikan keuntungan sebesar Rp25.000,00 maka meskipun sama-sama memperoleh hasil yang indifference (sama) di akhir perhitungan Pa=Pb, pertanyaannya kenapa kebanyakan orang justru lebih memilih pilihan B ketimbang A. Simpel saja, Hal ini ternyata ada yang mempengaruhinya. Penjelasan tentang hal ini dapat diketahui setelah diadakannya eksperimen mengenai perilaku ekonomi antarseseorang yang ternyata dipengaruhi oleh tingkat risiko salah satunya. Semakin tinggi uncertainty untung atau rugi yang akan diterima seseorang, maka orang tersebut cenderung untuk melakukan aktivitas ekonomi yang aman-aman saja (memilih pilihan B) karena pilihan B tingkat risiko kehilangan uang lebih kecil dibanding A atau justru tidak ada sama sekali.

Eksperimen tersebut sekarang diperluas. Jika eksperimen awal menggenaralisir bahwa kebanyakan orang berperilaku risk averse terhadap uncertainty maka dengan perluasan eksperimen sekarang dibedakan subyek penelitiannya yaitu antara laki-laki dan perempuan. Observasi dilakukan kepada usahawan dengan menggunakan teknik random sampling. Hasilnya cukup mengejutkan ternyata gender mempengaruhi secara signifikan terhadap perilaku ekonomi seseorang.

Temuan di lapangan menunjukkan usahawan pria cenderung loss adverse (ekstra konservatif) daripada wanita. Usahawan pria memilih untuk melakukan kegiatan ekonomi dengan uncertainty yang rendah dari pada bertaruh untuk hal yang tidak pasti. Temuan ini beralasan karena pada dasarnya pria adalah kepala rumah tangga. Ia bertanggungjawab terhadap istri, anak, beserta anggota keluarga yang lain. Kewajiban seorang suami adalah memberi nafkah keluarganya, jadi agar bisa mencukupi nafkah tersebut seorang suami harus memiliki penghasilan. Besar kecilnya penghasilan berhubungan dengan jenis pekerjaan dan risiko pekerjaan.  Unsur uncertainty terdapat pada risiko pekerjaan sehingga jika dihadapkan antara dua macam pilihan seperti hal di atas  maka kecenderungan usahawan pria lebih memilih untuk survive dengan keuntungan minimal tanpa risiko daripada untung maksimal dengan penuh risiko.

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